When analysts warn about the Strait of Hormuz, they mean oil and gas. But strip away petroleum entirely and a startling picture emerges: six nations behind one chokepoint turn out to be the world's leading suppliers in dozens of specific non-oil products — from saffron to steel, aluminium to ammonia — several of them critically important.
The Strait of Hormuz is just 24 miles wide at its narrowest. In normal times, a fifth of the world's oil and a quarter of its liquefied natural gas flows through it. Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and the UAE all sit behind this single passage — and since March 2026, it has been closed.
In March 2026, as Israeli–U.S. strikes on Iran escalated, the Strait of Hormuz closed. Daily tanker passages fell from around 40 to near zero within days, and other shipping followed. The Houthi disruption of Red Sea shipping in 2023–2024 had already shown how quickly chokepoint crises cascade through global supply chains. Hormuz is narrower, harder to bypass, and carries more trade.
Discussions of Hormuz risk focus almost exclusively on oil and gas. But set aside mineral products entirely and a startling picture emerges: these six nations are the world's leading suppliers in dozens of products that have nothing to do with crude oil — some of which are hard or impossible to source elsewhere.
What else is the world losing right now — beyond barrels of oil and cubic metres of gas?
The breadth is striking. Iran alone accounts for 41% of the world's saffron exports, 16% of its pistachios, and major shares of methanol and heavy water. Despite decades of sanctions, Iran remains irreplaceable in several niche supply chains.
The UAE has leveraged its position as a logistics hub into genuine manufacturing strength — leading Gulf exports of aluminium alloys, unwrought gold, and diamonds that flow through Dubai's free zones. Qatar's gas wealth has spawned a world-class petrochemical industry, making it a top global supplier of rare gases, ethylene glycol, and urea fertilizer.
Iraq is a major source of steel structures and dates. Kuwait dominates in processed cheese and concentrated milk exports. Bahrain contributes aluminium products. Together, they fill critical gaps in global trade that few policymakers have mapped.
Across all 50 products, Gulf suppliers account for an average of % of global exports — worth $ billion in annual world trade. For each product, dozens of countries have built supply chains that run through the Strait of Hormuz — often without knowing it.
The consequences extend far beyond the energy sector. Energy prices rise most sharply — but the critical finding is how these increases propagate: natural gas is the primary feedstock for nitrogen fertilizers, and Gulf chemical exports underpin agricultural supply chains worldwide. When energy supply is disrupted, the effects cascade through chemical production into agriculture. Global energy prices rise by +5.4%, but food prices follow at +2.9% — well beyond what standard trade models would predict.
Global expenditure-weighted price changes under full Strait of Hormuz closure (short-run). The bottleneck mechanism amplifies food price increases beyond standard model predictions. Source: KITE model (Hinz, Mahlkow & Sogalla, 2026).
Energy-importing developing countries face disproportionate losses. Zambia (−5.6%), Sri Lanka (−3.9%), and Congo–Kinshasa (−2.6%) are among the hardest hit — countries that simultaneously depend on imported energy, imported fertilizers, and have large agricultural sectors with limited domestic alternatives. India (−1.9%) and South Korea (−1.5%) are also heavily exposed due to their dependence on Gulf energy imports. For these countries, the Hormuz closure is not merely an energy crisis — it is a food security crisis.
Welfare changes under full Strait of Hormuz closure (short-run). Countries directly affected by the conflict are excluded. Source: KITE model (Hinz, Mahlkow & Sogalla, 2026).
The products catalogued here are not commodities that can be quickly sourced elsewhere. Iran's saffron and pistachios depend on climate and soil. Qatar's petrochemical output required decades of infrastructure investment. The UAE's role as a diamond and gold trading hub rests on regulatory and logistics ecosystems that cannot be replicated overnight.
Most importing countries never stress-tested their supply chains for this scenario. The closure is now exposing vulnerabilities that extend from factory floors in East Asia to grocery shelves in sub-Saharan Africa — a web of dependencies that policymakers are only beginning to map.